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Climate policy of China

The climate policy of China has a massive impact on global climate change, as China is the largest emitter of greenhouse gases in the world. Chinese plans to abide by carbon emission reduction goals involves peaking greenhouse gas emissions before 2030, and achieving carbon neutrality before 2060.[1] Due to the buildup of solar power and the burning of coal, Chinese energy policy is closely related to its climate policy.[2] There is also policy to adapt to climate change.[3] Ding Xuexiang represented China at the 2023 United Nations Climate Change Conference in 2023, and may be influential in setting climate policy.[4]

Chinese domestic policy is largely decided at a local or provincial level, with some guidance being provided by the national government.[5] As such, policies meant to regulate businesses are usually enforced by city or provincial governments.[5]

There is a debate surrounding China's economic responsibilities in terms of climate change mitigation and efforts to mitigate climate change within China. In 2006, China surpassed the United States as the country with the highest total carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions rate.[6]

Actors and institutions

Since 2000, rising CO2 emissions in China and the rest of world have eclipsed the output of the United States and Europe.[7]
Per person, the United States generates carbon dioxide at a far faster rate than other primary regions.[7]

In 2018, China established the Ministry of Ecology and Environment (MEE).[8]: 95  A number of environmental policy functions were merged from other ministries into the MEE, including MEP functions, climate policy previously under the NDRC, and a number of environmental policy functions previously under the Ministry of Water Resources and the State Oceanic Administration.[8]: 95  Pollutant and carbon emissions trading programs were also placed within the MEE's jurisdiction.[9]: 78  In 2021, Ministry of Ecology and Environment published a White Paper on "Responding to Climate Change: China's Policies and Actions".[10]

Beginning with a joint statement on the Kyoto Protocol in Bali in December 2007, Chinese non-governmental organizations (NGOs), in cooperation with international NGOs, assumed a more prominent role in efforts to mitigate climate change within China. NGO activity in China is restricted by government controls.[11]

The Institute of Public and Environmental Affairs is attempting to persuade large GHG emitters, such as steelmakers in Hubei, to publish their emission figures.[12]

Greenhouse gas emissions

This section is an excerpt from Greenhouse gas emissions by China.[edit]
China has the most total annual emissions (area of rectangle) of any nation, and has higher than average per capita emissions.[13]
Cumulatively over time, China is the second-largest contributor nation to global economic damage from emissions, following the U.S.[14]

China's total greenhouse gas emissions are the world's highest, accounting for 35% of the world's total according to the International Energy Agency. The country's per capita greenhouse gas emissions are the 34th highest of any country, as of 2023.

When measuring production-based emissions, China emitted over 12.6 gigatonnes (Gt) CO2eq of greenhouse gases in 2023, 35% of the world total.[15][16][17] When measuring in consumption-based terms, which adds emissions associated with imported goods and extracts those associated with exported goods, China accounted for 13 gigatonnes (Gt) or 25% of global emissions in 2019.[18]

Greenhouse gas emissions stem mainly from coal burning, including coal power, coal mining,[19] and blast furnaces producing iron and steel.[20] 79% of CO2 emissions are from the burning of coal.[21] According to the Carbon Majors Database, Chinese state coal production alone accounts for 14% of historical global emissions.[22] In 2024, China's total historical greenhouse gas emissions surpassed those of the European Union (EU), but trail those of the United States.[23]

As of 2019, the country's greenhouse gas emissions exceeded the combined emissions of the developed world.[18][16][24] China's per capita emissions correspond to over 10.1 tonnes CO2eq emitted per person each year, over the world average and the EU average but lower than the second largest emitter of greenhouse gases, the United States, with its 17.6 tonnes per person, according to a 2021 analysis by the Rhodium Group.[18] Analysis by Our World in Data also puts China's per capita emissions at over the world and EU averages but less than averages in Australia, Canada, and the U.S.[25] Accounting for historic emissions, OECD countries produced four times more CO2 in cumulative emissions than China, due to developed countries' early start in industrialization.[16][18] Overall, China is a net exporter of greenhouse emissions.[26]

The targets laid out in China's nationally determined contribution at the Paris Agreement in 2016 will likely be met, but are not enough to combat global warming.[27] China has committed to peak emissions by 2030 and net zero by 2060.[28] China continues to build coal-fired power stations in 2020 and promised to "phase down" coal use from 2026.[29] According to various analysis, China is estimated to overachieve its renewable energy capacity and emission reduction goals early, but long-term plans are still required to combat the global climate change and meeting the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) targets.[30][31][32]

Its commitment to reducing its greenhouse gas emissions has been a major force in decreasing the global cost of wind and solar power, in turn helping the use of renewable energy to rise globally.[33]: 8 

The toll on GDP

A federal financial auditing project—the 'Green GDP' -- has focused on the economic losses incurred by pollution. The project began in 2004 to incorporate the externalities of previously unaccounted-for environmental costs, but soon produced results that were much worse than anticipated. The program stopped in 2007.[34]

Emissions trading

This section is an excerpt from Chinese national carbon trading scheme.[edit]

The Chinese national carbon trading scheme is an intensity-based trading system for carbon dioxide emissions by China, which started operating in 2021.[35][36] This emission trading scheme (ETS) creates a carbon market where emitters can buy and sell emission credits. The scheme will allow carbon emitters to reduce emissions or purchase emission allowances from other emitters. Through this scheme, China will limit emissions while allowing economic freedom for emitters.

China is the largest emitter of greenhouse gases (GHG) and many major Chinese cities had severe air pollution through the 2010s,[37] with the situation improving in the 2020s.[38] The scheme is run by the Ministry of Ecology and Environment,[35] which eventually plans to limit emissions from six of China's top carbon dioxide emitting industries.[39] In 2021 it started with its power plants, and covers 40% of China's emissions, which is 15% of world emissions.[40] China was able to gain experience in drafting and implementation of an ETS plan from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), where China was part of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM).[37] China's national ETS is the largest of its kind,[40] and will help China achieve its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to the Paris Agreement.[37] In July 2021, permits were being handed out for free rather than auctioned, and the market price per tonne of CO2e was around RMB 50, roughly half of the EU ETS and the UK ETS but better compared to the US, which has no formal cap-and-trade program.[40]

China also has a policy of forestry carbon credits.[41] Forestry carbon credits are based on the measurement of forest growth, which is converted into carbon emission reduction measurements by government ecological and forestry offices.[41] Owners of forests (who are typically rural families or rural villages) receive carbon tickets (碳票; tan piao) which are tradeable securities.[41]

The large scale of current mitigation

New apartment buildings in Hubei are commonly equipped with solar water heaters

As of 2008, China's per capita emissions of CO2 were still one-quarter of that of the US.[42] Though China continues to build emissions-intensive coal-fired power plants, its "rate of development of renewable energy is even faster".[43]

There is great interest in solar power in China. The world's market share of China's photovoltaic units manufacturers grew from approximately 1% in 2003 to 18% in 2007,[44] with one of the largest Chinese manufacturers of these devices being the Chinese solar company Suntech.[45] Although the overwhelming majority of the photovoltaic units are exported, plans are under to increase the installed capacity to at least 1,800 MW by 2020.[46] Some officials expect the plans to be significantly over-fulfilled, with the installed capacity reaching possibly as much as 10,000 megawatts by 2020.[46]

Due to the growing demand for photovoltaic electricity, more companies (Aleo Solar, Global Solar, Anwell,[47] CMC Magnetics, etc.) have entered into the photovoltaic market, which is expected to lower the cost of PV cells.

Solar water heating is already used extensively throughout the country.[48]

China also has embarked upon a 9 million acre (36,000 km2) reforestation project—the Green Wall of China—that may become the largest ecological project in history; it is projected to be finished by 2050 at a cost of up to US$8 billion.[49]

Keeping emissions growth at less than GDP growth

Considering that energy consumption in most developed countries has usually grown faster than GDP during the early stages of industrialization, it is to China's credit that while its GDP has grown by 9.5% per year over the last 27 years, its CO2 emissions have increased by only about 5.4% per year,[43][42] meaning that its carbon intensity (its carbon emissions per unit of GDP) has decreased during that time, though it remains among the highest of any of the developed or developing nations.

Emissions contributed by multinationals in China

Chinese officials claim that they are doing a great deal that is often not visible, especially for a country as large, populous, and (rurally) undeveloped as it is. But working against that, and equally non-visible, is the role of multinational ventures in China in contributing to its emissions. It has been estimated that as of 2004, almost a quarter (23%) of China's CO2 emissions were coming from Chinese-made products destined for the West, providing an interesting perspective on China's large trade surplus. Another study shown that around 1/3 emissions from China in 2005 are due to exports.[50] Over half of those emissions driven by demand from the West are from transnationals taking advantage of China's developmental policies favouring heavy manufacturing over regions with more developed environmental laws and enforcement. This includes many of the Walmart-suppliers and other foreign-owned factories that stock department store shelves, particularly in the US.[51]

China has buttressed its call for joint international responsibility for at least part of China's emissions, by making public, in Jan 2008, Multinationals committed 130 violations of Chinese environmental law.[52]

Unlike their counterparts in many other countries, many Chinese commuters opt for electric bicycles and electric scooters, rather than vehicles with internal combustion engines

International collaboration

China has been in talks with several countries in regards to its continued greenhouse gas output, along with its efforts to abide by greenhouse gas emission targets. The relationship between U.S. Climate envoy John Kerry and Chinese climate envoy Xie Zhenhua allowed for improved collaboration between the two nations.[53] In 2023 the U.S. and China made an agreement to work toward several achievements meant to lessen the impact of the climate crisis, including improved renewable energy output, protecting forests, and reducing greenhouse gas emissions.[54]

China has been a frequent participant in climate agreements meant to promote reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, including the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement, although it is not obligated to follow through with achieving the goals put forth by a given agreement.[55] However, following the Copenhagen Accord in 2009, China has been subject to international criticism from climate activists due to attempts to leverage these deals toward more favorable conditions for their coal industry, which plays a large role in China's rising economic influence.[56]

Due to the influence of climate change denialism in U.S. politics, which resulted in President Donald Trump pulling out of the Paris Agreement, there has been some speculation that China would take the United States' place as chief enforcer of climate agreement guidelines.[57] China has committed US$3.1 billion of aid toward developing nations, in order to strengthen their efforts toward implementing carbon emission goals, signaling a desire to procure more influence among both developing nations and the climate movement.[58]

Debates

Opposition from provincial and local officials

Officials in Beijing cite violations by Chinese companies—in this case, to illustrate the enormity of the task in front of them in getting compliance for environmental regulations which they see as very progressive. Regional and local officials have been tasked with pushing companies toward accepting these regulatory measures.

Although local or regional governments have been tasked with carrying out environmental regulations, enforcement is typically fairly light.[59] For example, in 2006, Premier Wen Jiabao issued a warning to local officials to shut down some of the plants in the most energy-intensive industries, designating at least six industries for slow-down. The following year, those same industries posted a 20.6% increase in output.[60] Also in 2006, the national government began banning logging in some locations in order to expand its efforts to protect forests, and at the same time restricted the size of cities and golf courses in order to increase land use efficiency. Yet many of the local officials responsible for carrying out the new regulations essentially ignored them.[citation needed]

Lack of compliance is partially because local governments now have a chunk of funding for which they are not beholden to the central government, and are motivated to protect those funding sources which pollute, but pollute profitably.[45]

As a result, China's State Environmental Protection Administration attempted to use local banks as a means of discouraging companies from carbon-intensive practices, which has resulted in some unexpected failures. Many local governments that have officially implemented the 'Green Credit' policy of loaning only to companies with green practices continue also to protect polluting firms that are profitable, and the banks in some provinces have yet to apply the policy at all.[61]

Economic growth

China's leadership worries that China would end up suffering a slowdown in economic growth that would result in "massive unemployment and social unrest".[62][63] Some economists have estimated that a 2030 deadline for carbon emission reduction could result in a 2% decrease in GDP.[64] Additionally, stronger carbon emission caps have been expected to hurt Chinese- and foreign-owned companies in the short term, though adapting to these policies could still result in future growth.[65]

Global Responsibility and Historical Emissions

Chinese officials argue that China has been contributing to global warming for only 30 years, while the developed countries have been doing so for 200 years. Additionally, pollution-flagrant early stages of industrialization may have contributed to what China sees as a lack of balance of power, particularly between the US and China,[66] therefore many Chinese officials see global warming mitigation as creating an economic burden that slows its economy and further exacerbates the unequal balance of power.[67]

Chinese officials point out that the highest per capita emissions have long been and still are in developed countries, not in China.[68] As such, Chinese officials insist that developed nations should shoulder a comparable portion of the global cost for reversing the world's emissions, consistent with the polluter pays principle.[69]

China's climate envoy Xie Zhenhua has emphasized China's stance that rich countries have a greater responsibility regarding climate change than China, though China has been the world's largest carbon emitter since 2006.[70] His speech at the 2010 climate conference in South Africa conveyed this Chinese position:[71][72]

We are developing countries. We need to develop and eradicate poverty while protecting the environment. We’ve done what we should do, but you [developed countries] haven’t. What right do you have to lecture us?

History

As a member of the UNFCCC, China has participated in several conferences meant to implement resolutions toward reducing greenhouse gas emissions. However, China is a Non-Annex I signatory, meaning the nation is not obligated to meet reduction goals.[73] The provision by which China signed the Kyoto Protocol without committing to a cap was the same provision given to all developing nation signers.[74]

China's Fourteenth Five-Year Plan was the first Five-Year Plan to lay out Chinese climate policy.[75] The Climate Change Special Plan, which is included in the Fourteenth Five-Year Plan, emphasizes ecologically oriented urban planning, including through means like urban green rings, public transportation, and bicycle lanes and walking paths.[76]: 114 

In October 2021, China announced the 1+N plan, which details the nation's approach toward climate policy for the years between 2021 and 2029, including intentions to substitute coal or fossil fuel power for cleaner energy sources, such as renewables or nuclear energy.[77] The plan also includes provisions to promote low-carbon methods for energy production and industry, in order to peak the nation's carbon output before 2030. This plan places emphasis on clean energy sources and low-carbon production, meant to push the country toward achieving carbon neutrality by 2060.[77]

See also

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